The Times - Serving Waitsburg, Dayton and the Touchet Valley

This week we will review the cases of the new players added to the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. The players are Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, Carl Crawford, Jake Peavy, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Joe Nathan, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Papelbon, A.J. Pierzynski, and Ryan Howard.

Alex Rodriguez was a fourteen-time all-star, won the MVP award three times, has 3,115 hits, and ranks fourth on the career list for home runs and runs batted in. Does that look like a Hall of Famer? Absolutely. Does he have any chance of getting elected this year? No. Rodriguez admitted in 2009 to steroid use from 2001 to 2003, two days after it came out that his name was on a list of one hundred four major league players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). On August 5th of 2013, MLB suspended Rodriguez for 211 games for PEDs use as part of the Biogenesis scandal. Rodriguez appealed the decision and was suspended for the entire 2014 season. It will be interesting to see what percentage of the vote he receives in his first year. The argument for Bonds and Clemens by some sportswriters has been that they would have qualified for the Hall of Fame before they began taking PEDs, and neither of them ever admitted to using.

In the Seattle Mariners farm system, David Ortiz was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollis in August of 1996. After a slow start to his career, Ortiz was released by the Twins in December 2002 and signed as a free agent by the Red Sox in January of 2003, where his career would take off as a first baseman and designated hitter. Ortiz never won an MVP award during the regular season but would finish in the top five in the voting five times. He received the Edgar Martinez Award for best-designated hitter eight times and was named the 2013 World Series MVP with the Boston Red Sox. With a career .286/.380/.552 triple-slash line over twenty seasons and five hundred forty-one home runs. He will likely be elected to the Hall of Fame at some point during his eligibility. The one blemish on his record is he is one of the one hundred four players named for testing positive for PEDs during 2003. In 2016 MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke at a press conference defending Ortiz. He said the tests in 2003 were inconclusive and that “Ortiz has never been a positive at any point under our program,” which officially started in 2004, and that it would be unfair for HOF voters to consider the tests conducted in 2003. While Ortiz is popular enough among the press to get in on the first ballot, traditionally designated hitters take a little longer. I’d expect Ortiz to get at least 50% of the vote this year. Of all the first-year players, he is the most likely to get in.

Mark Teixeira will get some votes and probably stay on the ballot the full ten years but don’t expect him to get elected. Players who are nominated and receive at least 5% of the vote are holdovers on the following ballot. Holdovers can only remain on the ballot for ten years. With only three all-star appearances and one-second place finish in MVP voting in 2009, it’s hard to argue that he was one of the best players of his generation.

Jimmy Rollins did win the 2007 NL MVP award as a shortstop for the Philadelphia Phillies and four Gold Glove awards. However, a lifetime .264/.324/.418 triple-slash line doesn’t compare with the shortstops who have been elected recently.

Carl Crawford had 480 stolen bases over his career. That number seems impressive until you find out that it is only 43rd all time. Of the top twenty stolen base leaders, only ten are in the Hall of Fame.

Jake Peavy won the Cy Young award in 2007 for the San Diego Padres. He made three all-star games and had the lowest ERA in the National League two times. Neither his strikeout nor win totals are close enough to get him in.

Justin Morneau had an MVP award and had four consecutive all-star appearances before concussions, and a series of other injuries shortened his career.

Prince Fielder hit a home run into the second deck at Tiger Stadium during batting practice at age twelve. A promising career was cut short at age 32 following his second spinal fusion surgery. He ended his career with 319 home runs. Coincidentally the same amount of home runs as his father, Cecil.

Joe Nathan’s has 377 saves, and Jonathan Papelbon has 368; neither have the career statistics to get in as closers. With 422 career saves (6th most all-time), Billy Wagner did not crack fifty percent of the vote in his sixth year of eligibility last year.

Tim Lincecum has two Cy Young awards, four all-star appearances, and three World Series rings. Unfortunately, a ten-year major league career won’t be nearly long enough for him to get in.

During his nineteen years as a catcher, A.J. Pierzynski was in two all-star games. He played for seven different teams during his career. He’s unlikely to get the five percent to make it to next year’s ballot.

Ryan Howard was off to a great start in his career before injuries to his Achilles’ tendon and a torn meniscus. He collected a rookie of the year award, an MVP, and was an all-star three times. From 2006 to 2009, he hit 198 home runs.