CROPS

This just in from the Department of Redundancy Department: The wheat market is in a sideways pattern, with a range of just under 90 cents per bushel in Chicago soft red winter wheat, slightly more for Kansas City hard red winter, $1.23 from high to low in Minneapolis hard red spring wheat.

White wheat prices in Portland have swung from about $8.30 to about $9.05, settling early this week at about $8.76, just over the center of the 75-cent high-low range since late July. Global import buyers have been active in the usual Northern hemisphere late-harvest seasonal pattern. The market's message is that supply and demand are nearly balanced for wheat given current circumstances, including corn and soybean crop expectations and harvests and global economic functioning.

The next tradable price move in wheat will be sig- naled when the price moves out of the current pattern. Using Chicago December futures as the lead indicator, that would be a couple of closes above $9.45 (60 cents above today's level), or below $8.57, about 30 cents below present. If there is any bias in the system it is that the seven-week drift has been gently to the downside, and technical, chart-based examination is suggesting the path of least resistance is still lower.

Other short-term technical patterns that have emerged in the last couple of weeks are lower as well. The list includes corn, soybeans, gold, silver, crude oil, cotton, natural gas, canola and oats. There are virtually no commodity indicators calling for signifi- cantly higher prices in the next few weeks. Forecast- ing beyond the election is very foggy, indeed.

The general outlook is not particularly gloomy, but opportunity seems to lie in defensive postures for the near future.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substan- tial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital.