The Times - Serving Waitsburg, Dayton and the Touchet Valley

I n the 17 trading sessions since the USDA's last Quarterly Stocks Report on March 28, after which wheat prices in Chicago dropped 45 cents like a stone, the price of wheat has tried very hard to rally. Every day the market has searched for scraps of positive news like a Bride-to-be's search for a lost engagement ring.

The drought news from the Midwest has lost its power to influence the market unless a resumption of dry and hot conditions emerges very soon. Recent freezing temperatures in the US have clearly slowed wheat crop development and prospects in some areas, but it seems that every spring there are the same stories about killing frost without much effect.

Canadian spring wheat producers are running late due to ice and flooding, but again this is nearly traditional for the spring wheat boys as they try to squeeze every day out of a short growing season. Most major wheat growers outside of the US are in fairly good shape.

Global wheat importers will have a wide selection of sources this summer, and the Southern hemisphere is also seeing reasonable early conditions for seeding and emer- gence of next year's crop. Corn is seeing imports by US end- users from South America and Canada to fill old-crop needs, and planting conditions for the next US crop are decent.

There will be lots of attention paid to ethanol fuel mandates this year. On balance the supply of corn is not facing shortages this fall. Soybean crops in Brazil and other South American areas are large also. There is little stress going forward for available supplies.

So where from here? The chart slope for Chicago wheat is sideways to lower and it will take something not yet on the radar to change the major direction of price trend for wheat.

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