The Times - Serving Waitsburg, Dayton and the Touchet Valley

The spring winds that are blowing across the US Mid- western wheat belt are still cold, but they don't quite have the winter teeth that can eat little wheat plants the way they did last week. Overall US Spring wheat planting progress is nil in North Dakota and is reported at only 6% com- plete overall compared to 12% normally.

Moisture has improved slightly in some of the Western win- ter wheat states, but conditions have not changed much in the last 10 days. Taken as a whole, the weather factor for wheat is not yet enough to inspire market movement.

The grain market's attention has been distracted by met- als and other "outside markets" in the last couple of sessions. Silver lost altitude, briefly touching $22 Tuesday morning; a decline of about $3.50 per ounce in only 3 trading session since the previous Thursday. Gold dropped $239 per ounce to its Tuesday low of $1,321.50. Energy prices are also in decline, as crude oil has paralleled metals.

The dramatic collapse in metals pulled virtually every other significant commodity market out of whatever trend line it had been following for a few days. That included the stock market, although the Boston Marathon bombing also shook the market's confidence in the same time frame. Crude oil fell to a low of $86.06 Tuesday morning, a level last seen in December 2012.

While fear and loss are the stronger factors this week, there will be a reaction back to the upside in the short run. This kind of bounce must be viewed with skepticism. The outside mar- kets will have to prove themselves over a longer period of time to draw capital back to themselves, which leaves wheat with no mandate from factors outside of weather and business-as-usual in global markets.

Metals traders are in "agonizing reappraisal" mode for now, but if they respond as they have in the past, the buy recommen- dations will re-emerge soon.

Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds com- mitted should be risk capital.